FNI Update October – Is the business cycle turning?

About the index

The Financial News index (FNI) is designed to track Norwegian GDP growth and the business cycle at high frequency. The underlying indicators are daily time series representing how much the media writes about various topics.

  • To read more about the FNI, visit our website.
  • To read more about the use of textual data, we recommend CAMP Working Paper No. 4/2016: Words are the new numbers: A newsy coincident index of business cycles by Leif Anders Thorsrud.

The FNI was last updated 31 October

After an increase in the index through the last part of September, it fell in October. The FNI index is now at average levels, which is lower than we saw in the third quarter. It is too early to report a shift in the business cycle, but with increased uncertainty the index suggest that the upturn we have experienced is flattening out.

News that have a positive impact on the index in October:

  • News about startups and IT-systems increase the index, as they have during the last months. However, we see a tendency for this contribution to flatten.

News that have a negative impact on the index in October:

  • News about the stock market pulls the index slightly down, after having a positive impact last month. This is in line with the negative developments in international stock markets in October.
  • News about tourism and retail also contribute to decrease the index.

The next FNI update is 5 December 2018.

chart

The figure graphs the Financial New (FNI) with 68 percent confidence bands. The blue solid line demeaned quarterly GDP growth Mainland Norway, sourced from Statistics Norway (SSB). Please use the citation “FNI – Retriever/CAMP_BI” when using the index. 

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