Multivariate Bayesian Predictive Synthesis in Macroeconomic Forecasting

In the new CAMP working paper 01/2019, McAlinn, Aastveit, Nakajima and West extends the foundational Bayesian predictive synthesis (BPS) framework to the multivariate setting. They present new methodology and a case study in use of a class of BPS models for multivariate forecasting. Their case study highlights the potential of BPS to improve forecasts of multiple …

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FNI Update January – A Weaker Business Cycle

The Financial News index (FNI) is designed to track Norwegian GDP growth and the business cycle at high frequency. The underlying indicators are daily time series representing how much the media writes about various topics. The FNI was last updated 31 January After a decrease in December, the index remained just below average throughout January, …

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