FNI Update April – A Stable Economy

The Financial News index (FNI) is designed to track Norwegian GDP growth and the business cycle at high frequency. The underlying indicators are daily time series representing how much the media writes about various topics.

The FNI was last updated 30 April

The FNI index increased slightly in April, following a short slowdown at the beginning of the year, before stabilizing from February. The index is now just above its average level. This indicates that the business cycle has stabilized around an average growth path. It seems like the downturn at the beginning of the year was due to an increased uncertainty related to the development of the global economy and the stock market, but that this uncertainty has decreased now.

News that have a positive impact on the index in April:

  • News about startups, IT-systems and results continue to increase the index.
  • The oil sector and the industry sector has a positive contribution to the index.

News that have a negative impact on the index in March:

  • News about retail, tourism and newspapers pulls the index down.
  • The stock market still has a negative contribution, although to a lesser extent than before.

chart (8)

The figure graphs the Financial News (FNI) with 68 percent confidence bands. The blue solid line demeaned quarterly GDP growth Mainland Norway, sourced from Statistics Norway (SSB). Please use the citation “FNI – Retriever/CAMP_BI” when using the index.

 

The next FNI update is June 5 2019.

  • To read more about the FNI, visit our website.
  • To read more about the use of textual data, we recommend CAMP working paper No 4/2016Words are the new numbers: A newsy coincident index of business cycles by Leif Anders Thorsrud.

Previous FNI updates

For more information, contact Professor Hilde C. Bjørnland, BI Norwegian Business School, +47 464 10 767,  hilde.c.bjornland@bi.no

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s