FNI Update May – The Business Cycle is around Trend

The Financial News index (FNI) is designed to track Norwegian GDP growth and the business cycle at high frequency. The underlying indicators are daily time series representing how much the media writes about various topics.

The FNI was last updated 31 May

The FNI index increased slightly during April, and continued at the same growth path in May. The fact that the index is around trend indicates a normal business cycle. Following a setback in the first quarter of 2019, the index has again stabilized. It seems like the downturn in the beginning of the year was driven by uncertainty from abroad and the stock market, but that this uncertainty decreased in April and May.

News that have a positive impact on the index in May:

  • News about startups and results continue to increase the index.
  • The oil sector and the industry sector has a positive contribution to the index.

News that have a negative impact on the index in May:

  • News about retail, tourism and newspapers pulls the index down.
  • Following a period with a positive contribution, news about IT-systems now decrease the index.
  • The stock market still has a negative contribution, although to a lesser extent than before.

chart (9)

The figure graphs the Financial News (FNI) with 68 percent confidence bands. The blue solid line demeaned quarterly GDP growth Mainland Norway, sourced from Statistics Norway (SSB). Please use the citation “FNI – Retriever/CAMP_BI” when using the index.

 

The next FNI update is July 5 2019.

  • To read more about the FNI, visit our website.
  • To read more about the use of textual data, we recommend CAMP working paper No 4/2016Words are the new numbers: A newsy coincident index of business cycles by Leif Anders Thorsrud.

Previous FNI updates

For more information, contact Professor Hilde C. Bjørnland, BI Norwegian Business School, +47 464 10 767,  hilde.c.bjornland@bi.no

 

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