FNI Update July – A Stronger Business Cycle

The Financial News index (FNI) is designed to track Norwegian GDP growth and the business cycle at high frequency. The underlying indicators are daily time series representing how much the media writes about various topics.

The FNI was last updated 31 July.

Following the results of May and June, the FNI index in July is above the historical averages. This means that the Norwegian economy is still growing slightly above trend. The fall in the index in the first quarter of 2019 seems to have been transitory. It seems that the downturn at the beginning of the year was driven by uncertainty from abroad and the stock market, but that this uncertainty has diminished.

News that has a positive impact on the index in July:

  • News about startups and results continue to increase the index.

News that has a negative impact on the index in July:

  • New in July is that monetary policy decreases the index.
  • The three most important negative contributions stem from IT technology, monetary policy, and tourism.

chart (11)

The figure graphs the Financial News (FNI) with 68 percent confidence bands. The blue solid line demeaned quarterly GDP growth Mainland Norway, sourced from Statistics Norway (SSB). Please use the citation “FNI – Retriever/CAMP_BI” when using the index.

 

The next FNI update is September 5 2019.

  • To read more about the FNI, visit our website.
  • To read more about the use of textual data, we recommend CAMP working paper No 4/2016 Words are the new numbers: A newsy coincident index of business cycles by Leif Anders Thorsrud.

Previous FNI updates

For more information, contact Professor Hilde C. Bjørnland, BI Norwegian Business School, +47 464 10 767,  hilde.c.bjornland@bi.no

 

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s