FNI Update August – Increased Uncertainty

The Financial News index (FNI) is designed to track Norwegian GDP growth and the business cycle at high frequency. The underlying indicators are daily time series representing how much the media writes about various topics.

The FNI was last updated 31 August.

Contrary to the results of June and July, the FNI index declines throughout August. The fall is following a period of growth, and the index is still indicating a business cycle slightly above trend. However, the uncertainty is greater as the index is volatile.

News that has a positive impact on the index in August:

  • News about startups and results continue to increase the index.

News that has a negative impact on the index in August:

  • News about the stock market, monetary policy, and interest rates decrease the index.

chart (12)

The figure graphs the Financial News (FNI) with 68 percent confidence bands. The blue solid line demeaned quarterly GDP growth Mainland Norway, sourced from Statistics Norway (SSB). Please use the citation “FNI – Retriever/CAMP_BI” when using the index.

 

The next FNI update is October 4 2019.

  • To read more about the FNI, visit our website.
  • To read more about the use of textual data, we recommend CAMP working paper No 4/2016 Words are the new numbers: A newsy coincident index of business cycles by Leif Anders Thorsrud.

Previous FNI updates

For more information, contact Professor Hilde C. Bjørnland, BI Norwegian Business School, +47 464 10 767,  hilde.c.bjornland@bi.no

 

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