FNI Update September – Signalling a Contraction

The Financial News index (FNI) is designed to track Norwegian GDP growth and the business cycle at high frequency. The underlying indicators are daily time series representing how much the media writes about various topics.

The FNI was last updated 30 September.

The FNI index continued to fall in September. After a period of growth during the first part of summer, the index peaked in late July and has continued falling since. The decrease in September is not as strong as in August, but the index indicates that the business cycle is slightly below trend.

Like the previous month, news about monetary policy and interest rates continue to pull the index down, while new in September is that news about the international automobile industry also contributes to the fall in the index.

chart (13)

The figure graphs the Financial News Index (FNI) with 68 percent confidence bands. The blue solid line demeaned quarterly GDP growth Mainland Norway, sourced from Statistics Norway (SSB). Please use the citation “FNI – Retriever/CAMP_BI” when using the index.

The next FNI update is November 6 2019.

  • To read more about the FNI, visit our website.
  • To read more about the use of textual data, we recommend:

Thorsrud, Leif Anders (2018), “Words are the new numbers: A newsy coincident index of the business cycle”, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics.

 

Previous FNI updates

 

For more information, contact Professor Hilde C. Bjørnland, BI Norwegian Business School, +47 464 10 767,  hilde.c.bjornland@bi.no, or Associate Professor  Leif A. Thorsrud, BI Norwegian Business School, +47 988 37 976,  leif.a.thorsrud@bi.no.

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