FNI Update January – Continuing Around Trend

The Financial News index (FNI) is designed to track Norwegian GDP growth and the business cycle at high frequency. The underlying indicators are daily time series representing how much the media writes about various topics.

The FNI was last updated 31 January.

The FNI index experienced a downturn during the fall of 2019, but ended 2019 around trend growth. Following the January update, the index still indicates a business cycle slightly below trend. The index has been weakly negative throughout January, and ends around trend levels. This confirms the tendency we have seen since August, that we have reached the peak of the business cycle, and that we are in a period of slightly negative economic development.

News that has a positive impact on the index in January:

  • News about restructures and startups increase the index.

News that has a negative impact on the index in January:

  • News about the interest rate and monetary policy continue to decrease the index.

chart

The figure graphs the Financial News Index (FNI) with 68 percent confidence bands. The blue solid line demeaned quarterly GDP growth Mainland Norway, sourced from Statistics Norway (SSB). Please use the citation “FNI – Retriever/CAMP_BI” when using the index.

The next FNI update is March 5 2020.

  • To read more about the FNI, visit our website.
  • To read more about the use of textual data, we recommend: Thorsrud, Leif Anders (2018), “Words are the new numbers: A newsy coincident index of the business cycle”, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics.

 

Previous FNI updates

For more information, contact Professor Hilde C. Bjørnland, BI Norwegian Business School, +47 464 10 767,  hilde.c.bjornland@bi.no or Associate Professor  Leif A. Thorsrud, BI Norwegian Business School, +47 988 37 976,  leif.a.thorsrud@bi.no.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s