In the new CAMP working paper 01/2020, Hovdahl estimates the causal effect of temperature variability on mortality. The paper brings together the economic literature on the effect of global warming on temperature-induced mortality with the climate science literature. Hovdahl finds that increased monthly temperature variability causes increased mortality, and omitting the effect of temperature variability on mortality can severely bias the predictions on the number of temperature-induced fatalities caused by global warming. Furthermore, adaptation to increased temperature variability is more difficult than adaptation to increased mean temperatures. Depending on the effect of global warming on future temperature variability, there can be enormous consequences for human health and mortality, which are currently not accounted for in our estimates of the health impact of global warming.
The paper won the IAERE Young Environmental Economists Award. This is an award given to the best paper presented by an economist under the age of 33 at the Conference of Italian Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.