FNI Update February – The Business Cycle is Weakening

The Financial News index (FNI) is designed to track Norwegian GDP growth and the business cycle at high frequency. The underlying indicators are daily time series representing how much the media writes about various topics.

The FNI was last updated 29 February.

Updated with news from February, the FNI index shows a significant fall towards the end of the month. According to the index, the business cycle is weak throughout the month, and ends at its weakest level since the oil downturn during the summer of 2016. The decline of the index confirms what we have seen since fall 2019, namely that the expansion has passed.

News that has a positive impact on the index in February:

  • News about restructures and startups increase the index.

News that has a negative impact on the index in February:

  • News about the oil market, interest rates and monetary policy continue to decrease the index.

chart (18)

The figure graphs the Financial News Index (FNI) with 68 percent confidence bands. The blue solid line demeaned quarterly GDP growth Mainland Norway, sourced from Statistics Norway (SSB). Please use the citation “FNI – Retriever/CAMP_BI” when using the index.

The next FNI update is April 6 2020.

  • To read more about the FNI, visit our website.
  • To read more about the use of textual data, we recommend: Thorsrud, Leif Anders (2018), “Words are the new numbers: A newsy coincident index of the business cycle”, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics.

 

Previous FNI updates

For more information, contact Professor Hilde C. Bjørnland, BI Norwegian Business School, +47 464 10 767,  hilde.c.bjornland@bi.no or Associate Professor  Leif A. Thorsrud, BI Norwegian Business School, +47 988 37 976,  leif.a.thorsrud@bi.no.

 

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