Extra FNI Update: Is the Worst Behind us?

The FNI was last updated 28 April.

The FNI index for the Norwegian economy has been updated with figures up to and including April 28. The index has been falling continuously since the end of February. In the last week, however, it seems that the fall has slowed. Still, the index is at its lowest level since the financial crisis.

Already by the end of February, the index indicated that the Norwegian economy was entering a recession, and since mid-March, the index levels has been as low as during the financial crisis. This still holds after this update, however, during the past week it appears that the fall has decreased, and the business cycle might approach its trough. This does not imply that we should expect increasing growth or strong macroeconomic figures for the Norwegian economy in the near proximity. The FNI index is a leading indicator, while the official macroeconomic statistics reports the development that is behind us.

In the time that follows, we will monitor the business cycle closely, and we will publish updated FNI numbers more often than the regular monthly updates.

chart (4)

The figure graphs the Financial News Index (FNI) with 68 percent confidence bands. The blue solid line demeaned quarterly GDP growth Mainland Norway, sourced from Statistics Norway (SSB). Please use the citation “FNI – Retriever/CAMP_BI” when using the index.

  • To read more about the FNI, visit our website.
  • To read more about the use of textual data, we recommend: Thorsrud, Leif Anders (2018), “Words are the new numbers: A newsy coincident index of the business cycle”, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics.

 

Previous FNI updates

You find all blog posts about the FNI index here.

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