Extra FNI Update: Approaching the Trough

The FNI was last updated 5 May.

The FNI index for the Norwegian economy has been updated with figures up to and including May 5th. As with last week’s update, it seems like the fall in the index is slowing. Still, the index is at its lowest level since the financial crisis.

The past months, we have updated the FNI index approximately every week. Already by the end of February, the index indicated that the Norwegian economy was entering a recession, and since mid-March, the index levels has been as low as during the financial crisis. This still holds after updating the index with figures up to and including May 5th. Lately, the fall has slowed, and we may be approaching the trough of the business cycle. However, this does not mean that we can expect to see increasing growth or strong macroeconomic figures for the Norwegian economy in the near future. The FNI index is a leading indicator, while the official macroeconomic statistics report on the development that is behind us. The index is also at very weak levels.

In the time that follows, we will monitor the business cycle closely, and we will publish updated FNI numbers more often than the regular monthly updates.

chart (5)

The figure graphs the Financial News Index (FNI) with 68 percent confidence bands. The blue solid line demeaned quarterly GDP growth Mainland Norway, sourced from Statistics Norway (SSB). Please use the citation “FNI – Retriever/CAMP_BI” when using the index.

  • To read more about the FNI, visit our website.
  • To read more about the use of textual data, we recommend: Thorsrud, Leif Anders (2018), “Words are the new numbers: A newsy coincident index of the business cycle”, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics.

 

Previous FNI updates

You find all blog posts about the FNI index here.

 

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