Extra FNI Update: U, V, or Still Declining?

The FNI was last updated 19 May.

The FNI index for the Norwegian economy has been updated with figures up to and including May 19th. The index is still at very low levels, and the uncertainty is high. Still, there are signs that things are going up a bit.

The past months, we have updated the FNI index approximately every week. Already by the end of February, the index indicated that the Norwegian economy was entering a recession, and since mid-March, the index levels has been as low as during the financial crisis. This still holds after updating the index with figures up to and including May 19th. Recently, however, the level of the index has been slightly less negative, and the preliminary bottom point of FNI is about two weeks behind us. The uncertainty, however, is great. The question now is whether this is temporary, whether we are experiencing a prolonged U-shaped recession, or a faster cyclical upturn with a V-shaped recession.

In the time that follows, we will monitor the business cycle closely, and we will publish updated FNI numbers more often than the regular monthly updates.

chart (6)

The figure graphs the Financial News Index (FNI) with 68 percent confidence bands. The blue solid line demeaned quarterly GDP growth Mainland Norway, sourced from Statistics Norway (SSB). Please use the citation “FNI – Retriever/CAMP_BI” when using the index.

  • To read more about the FNI, visit our website.
  • To read more about the use of textual data, we recommend: Thorsrud, Leif Anders (2018), “Words are the new numbers: A newsy coincident index of the business cycle”, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics.

 

Previous FNI updates

You find all blog posts about the FNI index here.

 

One thought on “Extra FNI Update: U, V, or Still Declining?

  1. Pingback: Extra FNI Update: Still well below trend, but improving – CENTRE FOR APPLIED MACROECONOMICS AND COMMODITY PRICES (CAMP)

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s