Extra FNI Update: Still well below trend, but improving

The FNI was last updated 9 June.

The FNI index for the Norwegian economy has been updated with figures up to and including June 9. The index remains below trend, but has risen significantly since the trough in the end of April/beginning of May.

The development in the FNI the past months has been extraordinary. Already in early-March, the index fell abruptly and rapidly to very low levels. From mid-March, the index levels was as low as during the financial crisis, and signaled a severe and potentially long-lasting recession. However, in late April, this started to change. Since then, the index has gradually become less negative and is now approaching a more normal situation. Together with the development of the past weeks, the updates figures indicate that this will be a V-shaped recession, and not a long-term U-shaped economic downturn. We are, however, still below trend growth, the uncertainty is large, and the picture can quickly change again.

In the time that follows, we will monitor the business cycle closely, and we will publish updated FNI numbers more often than the regular monthly updates.

chart
FNI: June 9 2015 – June 9 2020
chart (1)
FNI: Jan 2020 – June 9th 2020

The figure graphs the Financial News Index (FNI) with 68 percent confidence bands. The blue solid line demeaned quarterly GDP growth Mainland Norway, sourced from Statistics Norway (SSB). Please use the citation “FNI – Retriever/CAMP_BI” when using the index.

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