FNI Update October – A W-Shaped Recession?

The Financial News index (FNI) is designed to track Norwegian GDP growth and the business cycle at high frequency. The underlying indicators are daily time series representing how much the media writes about various topics.

The FNI was last updated 31 October.

The FNI index for the Norwegian economy has been updated with figures up to and including 31 October. Since mid-October, the FNI index has fallen sharply, and it is now at as low levels as it was in March.

The development in the FNI index was extraordinary this spring. Already in the beginning of March, the index fell sharply and quickly to very low levels. By mid-March, the level of the index was lower than during the financial crisis, and signaled a strong and potentially prolonged recession. Since the end of April, the index has showed a more positive trend. However, in line with increased infection rates, and increased uncertainty in the financial markets related to the US election, the FNI index falls sharply in October. What previously seemed to be a V-shaped recession can now turn out to be a W.

The figure graphs the Financial News Index (FNI) with 68 percent confidence bands. The blue solid line demeaned quarterly GDP growth Mainland Norway, sourced from Statistics Norway (SSB). Please use the citation “FNI – Retriever/CAMP_BI” when using the index.
  • To read more about the FNI, visit our website.
  • To read more about the use of textual data, we recommend: Thorsrud, Leif Anders (2018), “Words are the new numbers: A newsy coincident index of the business cycle”, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics.

For more information, contact Associate Professor  Leif A. Thorsrud, BI Norwegian Business School, +47 988 37 976,  leif.a.thorsrud@bi.no or Professor Hilde C. Bjørnland, BI Norwegian Business School, +47 464 10 767,  hilde.c.bjornland@bi.no.

Previous FNI Updates

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