The FNI was last updated 31 May.
The FNI index for the Norwegian economy has been updated with figures up to and including 31 May. After spending some time on updating the algorithms we use to estimate the FNI index, the index is now updated, and gives a moderate positive view of the business cycle.
Already in February 2020, the FNI alarmed that we had tough times ahead. The index captured the development in the business cycle, but we observed that the uncertainty in the estimates increased. Therefore, we have now updated the algorithms we use to update the FNI index. This entails that the historical observations change somewhat but the broader picture remains. Our tests shows that the updated version is better at capturing the variation in the Norwegian economy than the previous version was.
The updated FNI index shows that the trough is behind us, and that we probably are at trend-levels when we now enter the summer months.
- To read more about the FNI, visit our website.
- To read more about the use of textual data, we recommend: Thorsrud, Leif Anders (2018), “Words are the new numbers: A newsy coincident index of the business cycle”, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics.
For more information, contact Associate Professor Leif A. Thorsrud, BI Norwegian Business School, +47 988 37 976, email@example.com or Professor Hilde C. Bjørnland, BI Norwegian Business School, +47 464 10 767, firstname.lastname@example.org.
Previous FNI Updates
- FNI Update February – FNI Index on Trend
- FNI Update January – Decreasing and Below Trend
- FNI Update December – Leaving 2020 Below Trend
- FNI Update November – Great Uncertainty in the Estimates
- FNI Update October – A W-Shaped Recession?
- FNI Update September – Continued Low Growth
- FNI Update August – Growth has Slowed Down
- Extra FNI Update: Still well below trend, but improving
- Extra FNI Update: U, V, or Still Declining?
- Extra FNI Update: Approaching the Trough
- Extra FNI Update: Is the Worst Behind us?
- Extra FNI Update: Lowest level since early 1990s
- March 2020 – as Serious as During the Financial Crisis
- Extra FNI Update – The impact of the Corona Crisis
- February 2020 – The Business Cycle is Weakening