FNI Update July – Slightly Above Trend

The FNI was last updated 31 July.

The FNI index for the Norwegian economy has been updated with figures up to and including 31 July. Compared with the previous update, the index increases to a level slightly above trend.

Already in February 2020, the FNI alarmed that we had tough times ahead. The index captured the development in the business cycle, but we observed that the uncertainty in the estimates increased. Therefore, we have updated the algorithms we use to estimate the FNI index. This entails that the historical observations change somewhat but the broader picture remains. Our tests show that the updated version is better at capturing the variation in the Norwegian economy than the previous version was.

With updated algorithms and figures, the FNI index for the Norwegian economy shows that the economic low-point of Covid-19 is well behind us, and that we probably will enter the autumn marginally above trend.

The figure graphs the Financial News Index (FNI) with 68 percent confidence bands. The blue solid line demeaned quarterly GDP growth Mainland Norway, sourced from Statistics Norway (SSB). Please use the citation “FNI – Retriever/CAMP_BI” when using the index.

• To read more about the FNI, visit our website.
• To read more about the use of textual data, we recommend: Thorsrud, Leif Anders (2018), “Words are the new numbers: A newsy coincident index of the business cycle”, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics.

For more information, contact Associate Professor  Leif A. Thorsrud, BI Norwegian Business School, +47 988 37 976,  leif.a.thorsrud@bi.no or Professor Hilde C. Bjørnland, BI Norwegian Business School, +47 464 10 767,  hilde.c.bjornland@bi.no.

Previous FNI Updates

• FNI Update June – FNI Upgraded, Updated, and at Trend Levels
• FNI Update May – Updated Algorithm
• FNI Update February – FNI Index on Trend
• FNI Update January – Decreasing and Below Trend
• FNI Update December – Leaving 2020 Below Trend
• FNI Update November – Great Uncertainty in the Estimates
• FNI Update October – A W-Shaped Recession?
• FNI Update September – Continued Low Growth
• FNI Update August – Growth has Slowed Down
• Extra FNI Update: Still well below trend, but improving
• Extra FNI Update: U, V, or Still Declining?
• Extra FNI Update: Approaching the Trough
• Extra FNI Update: Is the Worst Behind us?
• Extra FNI Update: Lowest level since early 1990s
• March 2020 – as Serious as During the Financial Crisis
• Extra FNI Update – The impact of the Corona Crisis