FNI Update August – A Negative Development

The FNI was last updated 31 August.

The FNI index for the Norwegian economy has been updated with figures up to and including 31 August. Compared with the previous update, the index now falls to a level just below trend.

Already in February 2020, the FNI alarmed that we had tough times ahead. The index captured the development in the business cycle, but we observed that the uncertainty in the estimates increased. Therefore, we have updated the algorithms we use to estimate the FNI index. This entails that the historical observations change somewhat, but the broader picture remains. Our tests show that the updated version is better at capturing the variation in the Norwegian economy than the previous version was.

With updated algorithms and figures, the FNI index for the Norwegian economy shows that the economic low-point of Covid-19 is well behind us. Since Spring 2021, the index has stayed around its historical average with a slightly increasing trend. Over the past month however, we see a negative development in the FNI.

The figure graphs the Financial News Index (FNI) with 68 percent confidence bands. Please use the citation “FNI – Retriever/CAMP_BI” when using the index.

  • To read more about the FNI, visit our website.
  • To read more about the use of textual data, we recommend: Thorsrud, Leif Anders (2018), “Words are the new numbers: A newsy coincident index of the business cycle”, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics.

For more information, contact Associate Professor  Leif A. Thorsrud, BI Norwegian Business School, +47 988 37 976,  leif.a.thorsrud@bi.no or Professor Hilde C. Bjørnland, BI Norwegian Business School, +47 464 10 767,  hilde.c.bjornland@bi.no.

Previous FNI Updates

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s