FNI Update November – FNI is Falling

The FNI was last updated 30 November.

The FNI index for the Norwegian economy has been updated with figures up to and including 30 November. Following the development of the pandemics, the index falls considerably.

During most of the autumn, the index has signaled a business cycle around trend. From mid-November however, the index has fallen significantly, and is now below trend. The uncertainty in the estimates is large as it has been through most of the pandemics. It is too early to say whether the decrease we see now indicates a significant setback, or merely a higher probability for a negative development in the business cycle.     

The figure graphs the Financial News Index (FNI) with 68 percent confidence bands. Please use the citation “FNI – Retriever/CAMP_BI” when using the index.

• To read more about the FNI, visit our website.
• To read more about the use of textual data, we recommend: Thorsrud, Leif Anders (2018), “Words are the new numbers: A newsy coincident index of the business cycle”, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics.

For more information, contact Associate Professor  Leif A. Thorsrud, BI Norwegian Business School, +47 988 37 976,  leif.a.thorsrud@bi.no or Professor Hilde C. Bjørnland, BI Norwegian Business School, +47 464 10 767,  hilde.c.bjornland@bi.no.

Previous FNI Updates

• FNI Update August – A Negative Development
• FNI Update July – Slightly Above Trend
• FNI Update June – FNI Upgraded, Updated, and at Trend Levels
• FNI Update May – Updated Algorithm
• FNI Update February – FNI Index on Trend
• FNI Update January – Decreasing and Below Trend
• FNI Update December – Leaving 2020 Below Trend
• FNI Update November – Great Uncertainty in the Estimates
• FNI Update October – A W-Shaped Recession?
• FNI Update September – Continued Low Growth
• FNI Update August – Growth has Slowed Down
• Extra FNI Update: Still well below trend, but improving