FNI Update June – FNI Signals Trouble

The FNI was last updated 30 June.

The FNI index for the Norwegian economy has been updated with figures up to and including 30 June. Following a period with great uncertainty, the FNI index now indicates a sharply declining economic development.   

Through most of 2021 and the first half of 2022, the FNI index has been around trend levels. However, the uncertainty, measured by the confidence bands around FNI’s point estimate, has been large and increasing throughout the period. At the beginning of the summer, however, the index falls markedly. At the end of June this year, the level of FNI is as low as the Covid summer of 2020. The development in the FNI index signals that we are heading for a recession, but the uncertainty in this estimate is significant and thus invites a more optimistic interpretation.

The figure graphs the Financial News Index (FNI) with 68 percent confidence bands. The blue solid line demeaned quarterly GDP growth Mainland Norway, sourced from Statistics Norway (SSB). Please use the citation “FNI – Retriever/CAMP_BI” when using the index.

• To read more about the FNI, visit our website.
• To read more about the use of textual data, we recommend: Thorsrud, Leif Anders (2018), “Words are the new numbers: A newsy coincident index of the business cycle”, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics.

For more information, contact Associate Professor  Leif A. Thorsrud, BI Norwegian Business School, +47 988 37 976,  leif.a.thorsrud@bi.no or Professor Hilde C. Bjørnland, BI Norwegian Business School, +47 464 10 767,  hilde.c.bjornland@bi.no.

Previous FNI Updates

• FNI Update February – FNI around Trend
• FNI Update December – FNI Around Trend Again
• FNI Update November – FNI is Falling
• FNI Update August – A Negative Development
• FNI Update July – Slightly Above Trend
• FNI Update June – FNI Upgraded, Updated, and at Trend Levels
• FNI Update May – Updated Algorithm
• FNI Update February – FNI Index on Trend
• FNI Update January – Decreasing and Below Trend
• FNI Update December – Leaving 2020 Below Trend
• FNI Update November – Great Uncertainty in the Estimates
• FNI Update October – A W-Shaped Recession?
• FNI Update September – Continued Low Growth
• FNI Update August – Growth has Slowed Down