FNI Update August – Growth has Slowed Down

The Financial News index (FNI) is designed to track Norwegian GDP growth and the business cycle at high frequency. The underlying indicators are daily time series representing how much the media writes about various topics. The FNI was last updated 31 August. In line with the weak GDP growth for the second quarter that was …

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Large Time-Varying Volatility Models for Electricity Prices

In the new CAMP working paper 05/2020, Gianfreda, Ravazzolo and Rossini study the importance of time-varying volatility in modelling hourly electricity prices when fundamental drivers are included in the estimation. They contribute to the literature of large Bayesian VARs by using well-known time series models in a huge dimension for the matrix of coefficients. Based …

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Macroeconomics in the time of the Corona

In the new CAMP working paper 04/2020, Mehlum and Torvik discuss some mechanisms from the traditional macro literature and from the literature on macroeconomics for developing countries, which contains economic mechanisms that overnight have also become more relevant for the developed market economies. For a developed market economies, the corona crisis is a new type …

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Inflation expectations and the pass-through of oil prices

In the new CAMP working paper 03/2020, Aastveit, Bjørnland and Cross examine whether inflation expectations and the associated pass-through of oil price shocks depend on demand and supply conditions underlying the global market for crude oil. They use a novel structural VAR model of the global oil market that jointly identifies transmissions of oil demand …

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Extra FNI Update: Still well below trend, but improving

The FNI was last updated 9 June. The FNI index for the Norwegian economy has been updated with figures up to and including June 9. The index remains below trend, but has risen significantly since the trough in the end of April/beginning of May. The development in the FNI the past months has been extraordinary. …

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Extra FNI Update: Lowest level since early 1990s

The FNI was last updated 15 April. The past month, we have updated the FNI index nearly every week. Since the end of February, the index has signaled that the Norwegian economy is entering, or is in, a recession. The FNI index has now reached its lowest level since the financial crisis, and is approaching …

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Hvor mye koster koronakrisen?

På fredag kom regjeringen med nye anslag på hvor kostbar de ser for seg at koronakrisen er og kan komme til å bli for statskassen. Finansdepartementet antar nå at eksisterende krisetiltak og konjunkturforløp vil gi en netto økning i offentlige utgifter på 200 milliarder kroner, mens hver ekstra måned med stekt nedsatt aktivitetsvekst vil øke …

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