Zero-Shot Conditional Forecasting and the Information Content of Central Bank Paths

In the new CAMP Working Paper 06/2026, Vegard H. Larsen and Leif Anders Thorsrud show that central banks publish projection paths, but these need not be optimal summaries of the information used to form them. They reframe conditional macroeconomic forecasting as an input problem: a fixed, pre-trained multivariate foundation time-series model reads the institution’s historical …

Generalized Bayesian Composite Quantile Regression with an Application to Equity Premium Forecasting

In the new CAMP working paper 04/2026, Nicolas Hardy and Dimitris Korobilis develop generalized Bayesian composite quantile regression (CQR), which is a robust and efficient estimator under heavy-tailed and contaminated errors. Existing Bayesian extensions rely on working likelihoods that require latent-variable augmentation and can deliver poorly calibrated credible intervals. The authors develop generalized Bayesian CQR, …

Forecasting Oil Prices Across the Distribution: A Quantile VAR Approach

In the new CAMP working paper 03/2026, Hilde C. Bjørnland, Nicolás Hardy, and Dimitris Korobilis develop a Quantile Bayesian Vector Autoregression (QBVAR) to forecast real oil prices across different quantiles of the conditional distribution. The model allows predictor effects to vary across quantiles, capturing asymmetries that standard mean-focused approaches miss. Using monthly data from 1975 to …

Using Transformers and Reinforcement Learning as Narrative Filters in Macroeconomics

In the new CAMP working paper 02/2026, Vegard H. Larsen and Leif Anders Thorsrud study how a multimodal Transformer-based deep learning architecture can be used for measurement and structural narrative attribution in macroeconomics, building on recent advances in Natural Language Processing and modeling of sequences. The framework they propose combines (news) text and (macroeconomic) time …

Regularized Random Subspace Regressions

In the new CAMP working paper 01/2026 by Yilin Xiao and Jamie L. Cross, they propose a new class of Regularized Random Subspace Regressions (RRSRs) that combine the variance reduction benefits of regularized estimators with the nonlinearities of random subspace ensembles. The approach introduces regularization in the selection of predictor subspaces, coefficient estimation within each …

Annual Report 2025

In our annual report, we at CAMP look back on a highly productive and impactful year, marked by strong research output, active policy engagement, and continued international collaboration. Below, we highlight some key developments from the past year. Research in Macroeconomics and Energy Economics In 2025, the CAMP network continued to contribute frontier research in …

Low Frequency Movements and SVAR Analyses

In the new CAMP working paper 10/2025 by Fabio Canova and Luca Fosso study the consequences of using a deterministic steady state in Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models, when the data may display structural breaks, transitional dynamics or low-frequency fluctuations. They document substantial upward biases in the estimated coefficients, with distortions further amplified by the identification …

Learning from crises: Forecasting in time-varying parameter VARs with observable adaptation

In the new CAMP working paper 09/2025 by Nicolas Hardy and Dimitris Korobilis, they develop a functional-coefficient time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) for macroeconomic forecasting, in which coefficients evolve as deterministic functions of observable exogenous variables, permitting straightforward linear estimation. By allowing economic indicators to signal structural change directly, the model disciplines parameter variation more …

SPEAKING OF INFLATION: THE INFLUENCE OF FED SPEECHES ON EXPECTATIONS

In the new CAMP working paper 07/2025 by Eleonora Granziera, Vegard H. Larsen, Greta Meggiorini and Leonardo Melos examines how speeches by Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members, including regional Fed presidents, shape private sector expectations. Speeches that signal rising inflationary pressures prompt both households and professional forecasters to raise their inflation expectations, consistent with …

SHOULD MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY PULL IN THE SAME DIRECTION?

In the new CAMP working paper 06/2025 by Drago Bergholt, Øistein Røisland, Tommy Sveen and Ragnar Torvik, the authors challenge the common view that monetary policy and fiscal policy should pull in the same direction when used together for macroeconomic stabilization. They challenge this view by analyzing the optimal policy mix in a small open …