Business Cycle and Health Dynamics during the COVID-19 Pandemic. A Scandinavian Perspective

In the new CAMP Working Paper 15/2023, Bjørnland, Jensen and Thorsrud use a unique measure of daily economic activity and manually audited nonpharmaceutical intervention (NPI) indexes for Noway and Sweden to model the joint dynamic interaction between COVID-19 policy, health, and business cycle outcomes within a SVAR framework. Their analysis documents potentially large measurement errors …

Risky news and credit market sentiment

In the new CAMP Working Paper 14/2023, Labonne and Thorsrud show how one can use textual economic news combined with a shallow Neural Network to construct an alternative financial indicator based on word embeddings. By design the index associates growth-at-risk to news about credit, leverage and funding, and the authors document that the proposed indicator …